Opinion: Results-Based Categorization (Race Categories, Part 3)

In part 1 of this series, I laid out the current Zwift race categorization situation. This included a discussion of the standard FTP-based categories, how enforcing rules post-race falls short, and a look at some actual participation numbers to show how currently-published race results are far from ideal. We ended that post with some ideas for improving the race experience for everyone, including the simple solution of using a rider’s saved FTP to determine their race category. Read part 1 here >

Part 2 followed, where we looked at some ideas for further improving race categorization. This included basing rider categories on more complete rider phenotypes, enabling real-time detection of category violations, and more. The big idea here was an iterative improvement on race categories and enforcement, so when the final phase rolls out, we’ll already have many of the tools in place to make it work. Read part 2 here >

Now let’s look at the final phase: results-based categorization.

Why Results-Based Categories Are Needed

The vast majority of Zwift races currently use the same categorization scheme, which is based on your FTP. Back in part 1 I said: “While some may disagree, I think ZwiftPower’s categories do a good job of breaking riders into groups that can compete well against each other.” And I honestly believe that. The biggest problem with our current w/kg-based categories isn’t the category setup, it’s the sandbaggers who race with impunity below their category, negatively affecting the race experience for legit riders.

But here’s the thing: the sandbagger issue is going to be resolved. That’s what my first two posts were all about, and if Zwift was to implement just a few of the suggestions found there (and it sounds like they are) most of the sandbagging problem will go away.

Once that happens, we’ll have a functional FTP-based categorization system on our hands. And that’s when we’ll start to notice its shortfalls!

Here are a few of the common complaints regarding FTP-based race categories:

• Favors heavier riders: a 100kg rider’s 3.2w/kg (320 watts) is much faster on flat ground than a 75kg rider’s 3.2w/kg (240 watts).
• No skill component: a highly-skilled rider could dominate a category, winning every race without ever bumping against the w/kg ceiling. Conversely, an unskilled rider near the middle or bottom of their category’s power limits won’t stand a chance of winning, but they are forced to race in that category anyway.
• Forever losing: if a rider happens to have power which places them at the bottom of a category (for example, a B with an FTP of 3.3w/kg), they stand very little chance of ever winning a race, yet can never drop to the C category.
• Hard to Understand: “I just want to race, I don’t know which category I’m in!” The current system presents a barrier to entry because it requires riders to know their FTP w/kg: a number which many (most?) cyclists don’t know.

A results-based system, if properly implemented, would eliminate each of these complaints. It really is the way forward for Zwift racing, which is why I’m sure it will happen eventually. Let’s look at how such a system could work.

Functionality “Must Haves” and “Should Haves”

The biggest challenge in creating a proper results-based system is that it’s complex. No ranking system will be perfect, and while we have good models in real-world cycling and gaming, Zwift presents some unique challenges that aren’t accounted for in those systems.

So the way to begin is to outline what a workable categorization system would accomplish. Here are my proposed requirements – the must-haves which would be required in order for the system to function on a basic level:

1. Simple Startup: this is Zwift. Newbies should be able to hop into their first race, have a great time, and get a result on their very first try.
2. No Sandbagging: controls must be in place so sandbaggers don’t spoil the race experience for others.
3. Immediate Results: as soon as I cross the line, I should be able to see my result, and how it has affected my overall ranking. All disqualifications should be automatic and already in place before the race ends.
4. Strength of Field Included: points earned or lost must take into account both the rider’s finishing position and the strength of the overall field. It’s not as simple as receiving X points for placing in Xth place. Example: an average B racer who gets 4th place in a race that includes 50 riders, many who are stronger than her, should see more of a ranking improvement from her result than when she wins a race against 5 riders who are all weaker than her.

And here are my additional wishes – the “should haves” which would really make the system great, but aren’t required in order for it to function.

1. Easy Downgrades: a rider who is coming back from injury or sickness should be able to race in an easier category, provided their involvement doesn’t ruin the experience for others.
2. Race Up if Desired: riders should be able to race in a more challenging category, if that’s what they want to do.
3. Flexible Categories: when we have races ranging from 5 riders in a category to several hundred, it makes sense to develop a system that allows for flexibility in terms of the number of categories and their breakpoints. When rider counts are high, race organizers could choose to have more/narrower categories, making the competition even fiercer.
4. Racer Dashboard: racers need easy access to a few key stats which show where they rank in the Zwift universe and how their latest results have affected their rankings. Ideally this would be available in-game, in Companion, and on zwift.com.

Structuring the Categorization System

Spoiler alert: I’m not going to attempt to lay out the details of a categorization system in this post. Even if I was an expert on categorization systems (I’m not), it’s too complex of an idea to detail in a single blog post. I will, however, reference a few systems and what makes them interesting.

USAC Points

The system used by USA Cycling has obviously been proven in the real world. ZwiftPower uses this system for its ranking points (with a minor modification for small race fields), so this system is actually already in use by Zwifters. Read how it works on ZwiftPower >

ELO Rankings

The ELO Rating System was originally designed for chess players, but is now commonly used in modified forms for ranking players in major sports and video games. This seems to be the most commonly-used ranking system in gaming. Read more about ELO >

TrueSkill Ranking System

Developed by Microsoft Research and used for game matchmaking in Xbox live, TrueSkill has been used to rank players in many different big-name games from Halo to Forza Motorsport. It works well in multiplayer and team scenarios and includes a number quantifying the degree of uncertainty the system has about a gamer’s skill. This would seem to be an important metric in a sport like cycling, where newbies arrive often and one’s ability can change based on fitness level, injury, etc. Read more about TrueSkill >

Cycligent Virtual Rankings

This was the first true results-based race ranking system for Zwifters. Rolled out in January 2017, it ceased operations thanks to GDPR and not long afterward, CVR decided to create its own virtual cycling platform (CVRCade). This system’s structure was very complex, but how it all worked actually made sense if you could wrap your head around it. Read more about it in this ZwiftInsider post.

Dynamic Categories

Things could get pretty wild if Zwift allowed for dynamic categories – that is, categories which aren’t locked in place. Think about it: what if the number of categories in an event could dynamically change based on the number of participants signed up, with the system automatically grouping riders by rank into categories of, say, 40+ riders?

Nobody wants to race against just a few riders, but in an event with 500 signups, why not have (for example) 6 categories instead of 4? This allows riders in each category to more closely compete with each other so more riders feel they’ve “got a chance” and therefore will push harder for the chance of glory.

It could work in the other direction as well: if a race only had 20 participants, maybe it would only have 1 category.

This is all just brainstorming, of course. But I do think there are many interesting possibilities here which could let Zwift racing stand out from outdoor racing in meaningful ways. Perhaps we’ll end up with some races being based on “stable” categories, and others being dynamic. Why not?

When

Based on the recent Minterview, we know Zwift is close to implementing some controls to reduce the negative effects of sandbaggers. That’s great news! Eric Min made it sound like those changes would roll out in the next month or two.

What about results-based categorization? When can we realistically expect that to happen? I can only guess at a timeline, but my guess is that it’s not going to happen any time soon. ZwiftHQ doesn’t seem to have this as a high priority item, so I’d say we’re looking at 6-18 months before such a system rolls out.

Your Thoughts

How important is it for Zwift racing to switch to results-based categories? Got any great ideas for how such a system would work? Share your thoughts below!

< Read Part 2 of this Race Category Enforcement Series

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One Woman’s Tour de Zwift 2020, Illustrated

Olya Perevalova Cohen is a level 26 Zwifter and skilled artist. She illustrated each stage of her (and faithful dog Pepe’s) Tour de Zwift 2020 efforts, giving us a little window into her personal experience of this year’s tour.

Here is each set of illustrations. Enjoy!

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Stage 1 (Group Ride)

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Stage 1 (Race)

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Stage 2

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Stage 3

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Stage 4

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Stage 5

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Stage 6

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Stage 7

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I recently received an email from a Zwifter named David:

I have a request. In your race reviews, like today’s Crit City, you talk about the group you’re in, where that group is positioned in the race relative to other groups and where you are within your group. I would be very interested in an article on how you track all this – how you “see” the race.

As a newbie, I have a somewhat myopic view. I can see who is around me on the screen and I can see the list of riders on the right sidebar and the w/kg they’re putting out. But that’s only showing me maybe a dozen of the riders closest to me. I don’t really know how big my group is and I have no idea how many other groups are ahead or behind me.

Perhaps I’m reading more into your posts than there is. But if you’re able to share strategies for “seeing” the race, I expect there are plenty of others like me who would benefit.

This is such a smart question for a newbie ask, and an interesting topic for a post. So David: here’s your answer!

Before You Start

It may seem odd to talk about how you can “see the race” before the race even begins. But there’s so much that can be done pre-event which gives you more visibility into the actual race, thus allowing you to race smarter.

Depending on how important a particular race is to you, the additional prep time required may or may not be worth it. But I will tell you that many top-level Zwift racers spend a fair amount of time on race prep, and it shows in their results!

Know the Riders

Have you ever met someone new, then start seeing them everywhere you go? It’s funny how our brains work. The same is true on Zwift – while you can’t see faces, you can see rider names. And until you know which riders to look for, you probably won’t “recognize” them in game with all the other names floating by.

ZwiftPower is your best friend here. Find your event on the site, click on it, then filter the list by your race category. Now you have a list of your registered competition. Click the “Rank” column to sort them by ranking and you’ll see where you fit in the overall rankings, and who the favorites are for your event. Learn those names!

Want to dig deeper? Click a rider’s name and look at their recent results, power profile, and more. What you find there can inform your race strategy. Two quick examples:

• You may find that the top-ranked rider isn’t a very good sprinter, but has strong TT power. That means you need to watch for them to make an earlier attack or attempt a long final effort. You may also be able to make them suffer by putting in hard digs during the race, so they have to put in challenging, short efforts to stay with you.
• Or perhaps the top-ranked riders is a strong sprinter – and you are not! That means you don’t want the race to end in a pack finish, where you’ll be beaten. So maybe you’ll decide to attack extra hard up that final climb to try to break away and stay away to the finish.

While the ZwiftPower list won’t include racers who sign up at the last minute, it will get most of the riders in your event, as long as you look within a few hours of the event start.

Know the Route

Knowing your race route is essential, and the better you know it, the smarter you can race. We won’t discuss formulating race strategy based on the route in this post (that’s a topic in itself!), but let’s talk about how knowing the route lets you see the future – a handy skill when we want to “see” the race!

If you know the route, you’ll know where the key attacks will probably happen. This isn’t 100% assured, of course, but after riding 300+ Zwift races (and watching countless more) I would say I can predict where on the course the key attacks will happen almost every time. I can see the future.

It’s simple, really: the attacks happen on the climbs. So look up the route in our route detail pages, get acquainted with the layout, and you’ll know what to expect. With advanced route knowledge, you’ll understand what is happening when the pack surges heading into a short climb, or backs off on the flats because they know a climb is coming. So not only does course knowledge let you see the future, it also gives you the ability to read the peloton’s hive mind!

Get a DS

For key races, many teams get a DS (“Directeur Sportif”) or “team car” helper who isn’t riding the race. Instead, their job is to watch the race and pass on important info to team riders via team voice chat. This is very helpful because the DS can click on your opponents to see their heart rates, look at live data in ZwiftPower, and generally do a whole lot of work that is tough to do when you’re hanging on for dear life in a race.

Because of how Zwift currently functions, the DS has to join the race like any other racer to properly “see” the race. Then once the race begins, they need to click another rider so they’re watching the race from the other rider’s perspective. It’s a bit of a hack, but it works.

During the Race

Using the Rider List

The rider list on the right is a very useful tool for racers, delivering data which isn’t always available on the main part of your screen. Here’s what the rider list displays:

• Your current placing in the overall race
• Total number of racers in your category
• Time gaps (which are really distance gaps)
• Rider w/kg
• Rider name (which includes team name)
• Rider country
• Rider category
• Rider distance

Zwift randomly displays rider names above avatars in the main portion of the screen, but it can still be hard to figure out who is who. I often use the rider list to figure out who is pushing the pace at the front – I will work my way close to the front of the pack, then look at who is still ahead.

I’ll also use the rider list to figure out the size of my rider group. I do this by drifting back in the pack until I see riders near the bottom of the list who are several seconds or more off the back. Then it’s easy math to figure out how big my pack is.

The rider list also lets me match up rider names to avatars. Perhaps I see names of riders who I know are strong racers (from prior experience or ZwiftPower research). I can then figure out that rider X is the one wearing this particular kit, while rider Y is wearing this other kit. Now I can mark them in my group, ready to grab their wheel if they make an attack.

The list is useful for spotting attacks or final sprints, too. A rider’s w/kg number turns orange when they hit 8 w/kg or more, so when you see that orange number you know something’s happening!

Changing Camera Angles

Are you barely hanging onto the pack, or safely in the middle of a large group? Has your starting group of 60 been whittled down to 20, or 50? Camera angle 6 is useful if you want to see how many riders are behind you. I often tap 6 on my keyboard for a quick look back so I get a full picture of the current peloton situation.

Team Radio

If you’re riding with one or more team members, using Discord for voice chat allows you to easily communicate race information back and forth. You might be in the breakaway while your teammates are in the peloton, and you can talk back and forth about how each group is behaving so you can decide if you want to keep pushing to stay away, or ease up and get caught.

And of course, if you have a DS helping you out, they’ll need to be on team radio as well.

Using ZwiftPower LIVE

ZwiftPower’s “LIVE” tool gives you a level of insight into current race data that you simply can’t get anywhere else. Every 15 seconds, the tool refreshes the positions and data of everyone in your event, allowing you to see who is in which groups of riders and what their power and heart rate numbers look like.

You really need ZwiftPower open in a browser on a separate computer screen for it to be useful. But if you’re able to do that, you’ll find this to be a very handy tool.

Changing Minimap View

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The minimap at the top-right of your Zwift screen has three different modes: zoomed in, zoomed out, and perspective. I often race with it zoomed out so I have a better chance of seeing riders up the road or chasing behind. Especially in chase/handicap races! Just click the minimap to toggle between views.

Seeing the Full Map

If you’re new to Zwift and still learning the routes, using one of the community’s map tools may help you better understand where you’re going. ZwiftGPS.com is a browser-based tool that shows your location (along with friends) on a Zwift map. Or ZwiftHack’s “ZwiftMap” tool overlays a simplified map on your game screen, so you don’t need a separate screen to view everything.

You can also use Zwift Companion and zoom in or out to view the world map.

What About You?

I certainly don’t employ all of these strategies in every Zwift race, but I’ve used all of them at different times. What tools or strategies do you employ to best “see” your Zwift race? Share your tips below!

Life On the Line: Upgrading from C to B In Zwift Racing

I have been using Zwift for two years now. What started out as something new to try during the winter months has turned into a training platform with results I can see and feel. When I first started on Zwift I took the normal tests and used the metrics to enter a few group rides. In those early days, I was solidly at the bottom of Cat C but as my riding and training improved I found myself creeping toward the top of the category and even nearing the cutoff between Cat C and Cat B. Awesome news right? I am improving and my results are starting to back up the feelings in my legs… or perhaps not.

I don’t feel this situation is unusual or unique to me. As many Zwifters continue to improve they must also follow categorical rules for events. ZwiftPower keeps those events honest as you can be DQ’d if your numbers are not in-line with requirements for the category you entered. In fact, this happened to me in my last Cat C race!

Overall ZwiftPower’s automatic filtering and disqualifying keeps the racing more even by organizing categories, determining category upgrades, and removing sandbaggers from the final results. So if you’re not registered on ZwiftPower go for it! It’s free and after you sign up there’s not much to do except see better results.

Now things get interesting, as I find myself at the bottom of the Cat B group. Making that transition from Cat C to B was one that made me feel super positive, I knew I was improving and now I could race with the ‘Big Boys’. However, while I was very competitive and working hard for podiums in Cat C, after my first few B events I’m setting simple goals of ‘Don’t take last’ or ‘Push it hard at the beginning to make the split…into the 2^nd group’.

Oddly enough, it seems that sometimes improving can kill your positive outlook.

If you haven’t had the experience (riding inside or out), let me tell you that pushing hard and not gaining can be super depressing. So what to do? It can be overwhelming to always be pushing as hard as you can to simply hold a wheel.  There is a sense of pride in it for me though. I have worked incredibly hard, early mornings and late nights to get the chance to ‘try and hold the wheel’. So I am choosing to use it as a motivator.

I was really ecstatic when I could start being competitive in Cat C races and I know I can get there in Cat B. It’s just going to take more time pushing my limits even further.

Zwift has created an environment for us all to work together and compete. Whether that’s against each other or just ourselves we have the chance to keep improving. Although I am at the bottom of the category now I hope to get into the middle with some more work and who knows, maybe push the top of the group sometime down the road. Wish me luck!

What About You?

Have you found yourself in the dreaded ‘Riding the line’ situation on Zwift? How did you deal with going from the front to the back of the pack? Got any tips to share with me?

I hope you keep pushing your limits and maybe next time we can battle it out for a win… or just not to take last!

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