The stage 4 finish in the men’s Virtual Tour de France was a thrilling finale to a hard-fought race. With a reduced pack of only eight riders which included two pairs of teammates, the final kilometers probably would have played out differently if the race was outdoors where these top-level pros have much more experience. But here on Zwift things are a bit different – powerups come into play, physics are tweaked, and you don’t have the precise positioning and immediate feedback afforded to outdoor racers.

What makes this finish interesting is the interplay between riders as some execute their finish perfectly and others make missteps. Let’s dig into an analysis of the final minutes of Sunday’s men’s stage 4.

As expected, the final climb up the Petit KOM was the decider for many riders, thinning the herd from ~30 racers to just 8. This front pack of riders crested the top of the climb with a 6-second lead on any chasers, and they would stay away for the rest of the race:

• Craddock (EF, #43)
• Madouas (Groupama-FDJ, #82)
• Ovett (Israel Startup Nation, Polka-Dot Jersey, #91)
• Turek (Israel Startup Nation, #94)
• Shultz (Mitchelton-Scott, #112)
• Gogl (NTT, Green Jersey, #161)
• Valgren (NTT, Yellow Jersey, #162)
• Clark (Trek-Segafredo, #174)

Meter by Meter

1000m: Gogl activates his draft boost powerup from the back of the group and powers off the front of the group at 8+ w/kg with Valgren on his wheel. They quickly gap the group by perhaps 15m, although Ovett responds quickly, coming around the group to grab Valgren’s wheel. Then almost as quickly as it started, both Valgren and Gogl “sit up” and rejoin the group.

758m: Turek activates his burrito powerup from the back of the group, then powers through the pack to the front.

658m: Turek, with his burrito powerup still active, is the first rider to hit the cobbles of the bridge, attacking off the front at 11+ w/kg. (It’s marginally easier to put time into your opponents with an attack on cobbles, since rolling resistance is higher on Zwift cobbles than tarmac. Cobbles or other slow-rolling surfaces in Zwift behave like a false flat in terms of attackability.)

He manages to create a small gap by the 600m mark. His teammate Ovett wisely sits in the pack, making the others put in the work to reel him in. Turek’s move here is a smart one, softening the legs of his competitors heading into the final sprint so his teammate Ovett has a better chance at a win.

508m: Clarke activates an aero powerup, powering off the front and creating the biggest gap so far. But can he stay away to the line?

430m: Madouas activates his draft boost powerup. This is a smart move, but he could have activated the powerup around 8 seconds earlier and still had it active all the way to the line. Every little bit counts, and the draft boost gives 30s of increased draft – a big help in a pack sprint!

300m: (Somewhere around here, Ovett and Shultz activate their aero powerups. They aren’t visible on-screen when they do so.)

150m: Clarke is on the front but flagging as his aero boost runs out. Valgren is ~30m behind him and still pushing hard, but with no powerup.

75m: Ovett with his aero boost active comes around Valgren, passing Clark just a split second later. Shultz is in 4th with an aero boost active.

40m: Shultz passes Clark. He’ll pip Valgren at the line as well, taking 2nd on the day.

0m: Ovett crosses the line ~15m ahead of the next contender. His perfectly-timed aero boost powerup runs out just as he crosses the line.

Finishing Order

1. Ovett (Israel Startup Nation, Polka-Dot Jersey, #91)
2. Shultz (Mitchelton-Scott, #112)
3. Valgren (NTT, Yellow Jersey, #162)
4. Clark (Trek-Segafredo, #174)
5. Madouas (Groupama-FDJ, #82)
6. Craddock (EF, #43)
7. Turek (Israel Startup Nation, #94)
8. Gogl (NTT, Green Jersey, #161)

Ovett played this finish perfectly, chasing down the initial attack from NTT, then sitting in and conserving until just the right time. Shultz also rode the finish smartly, sitting in the wheels then activating his powerup to maximum effect. Valgren put in a massive effort, and even used his teammate Gogl for a bit of a leadout in the final seconds – but he jumped early, and had no powerup to help him in those crucial final seconds.

What Might Have Been

Sprint finishes in top men’s races on Zwift often start from way out, and this after a hard run-in in the final kilometers. (Today’s sprint for the men began ~100m earlier than the women’s sprint on the same course.) Did Clarke jump first and go long on purpose? Both his legs and his powerup ran out early, suggesting he mistimed the finish.

The rider who jumps first rarely wins. It’s the cagey, patient riders like Ovett and Shultz who are usually able to take the win with a well-timed powerup and burst of sprint power in the final ~200m.

Could NTT have played this differently, with better results? Probably. Gogl’s odd abbreviated attack at 1km seemed like a slipup on his part. Did he mistake his van powerup for an aero boost? Both he and Valgren may have been better served if Gogl had used this powerup in the final sprint, chasing down whoever jumped first in the sprint, keeping Valgren on his wheel for the sprint leadout. Nevertheless, NTT finished strong in this stage, building on their commanding lead in the overall team GC as well as other classifications.

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Stage 4’s finish, like many sprint finishes in cycling, was a lesson in timing – both in terms of sprint power and powerups. And while it’s easy for me to watch the replay and make comments in hindsight, it is also fair to say that one team in particular could have played their cards differently in order to change the entire outcome of the race. Here is my analysis of the final minutes of Sunday’s stage 4 of the women’s Virtual Tour de France.

Riders had fought to stay on the front as the initial pack of 63 starters was whittled down mile after mile. Coming over the top of the final climb up the Petit KOM we had Lowden (Drops) first, with Stephens (Tibco), Henderson (Sunweb), Gigante (Tibco), and Dixon (Tibco) quickly catching her. With just 3.8km to go, this group had a 4-second lead on a chasing group consisting of Brennauer (WNT Rotor), Kasper, Tacey (Drops), Dygert (Twenty20), Bujak (Alé BTC Ljubljana), Lippert (Sunweb).

With three riders in the front group of five, Tibco would have been well-served to work hard to stay away from the chasers. But that didn’t happen, and the chase group closed the gap, forming a finishing pack of eleven who would contest the final sprint for stage 4 honors:

• Stephens (Tibco, #1)
• Dixon (Tibco, yellow jersey, #2)
• Gigante (Tibco, #3)
• Lowden (Drops, polka-dot jersey, #64)
• Tacey (Drops, #62)
• Dygert (Twenty20, #41)
• Henderson (Sunweb, #92)
• Lippert (Sunweb, #93)
• Brennauer (WNT Rotor, #121)
• Bujak (Alé BTC Ljubljana, #143)
• Kasper (Parkhotel, #152)

Meter by Meter

1000m: Lippert activates her burrito powerup and moves through the pack to the front, but never attacks. This move doesn’t help her at all, and perhaps even hurts as now her opponents know that she has no powerup left. Perhaps she thought the burrito lasted longer than 10 seconds, and she intended to attack off the front?

339m: Burrito dropped by Henderson, who is on the front of the group. (This is the first powerup dropped for the final sprint, and it begins a cascade of powerups. Within 4 seconds of Henderson dropping her burrito, all riders who have powerups will have activated them.)

333m: Brennauer activates her burrito. Dixon’s avatar gets out of the saddle and begins to sprint.

299m: Kasper activates her aero. Dixon comes around the front (Henderson) and activates her aero.

269m: Tacey activates her aero along with Stephens. There are now four riders with active aero powerups. Two of them will finish on the podium.

240m: Lowden activates ghost from near the back of the pack.

150m: Dixon is off the front, and Henderson 5m back has used a burrito powerup, so the riders 5m behind Henderson are working with a decreased draft effect. This is a big chance for Dixon and Henderson, if they can stay away to the line.

100m: Tacey powers around a rider and onto Henderson’s wheel. Riders are now strung out single file, charging toward the finish in this order: Dixon, Henderson, Tacey, Kasper, Dygert, Stephens. Dixon’s power is beginning to fade, dropping from ~11.5 w/kg to ~9.5 w/kg.

50m: Henderson comes around Dixon as Dixon’s aero runs out. But Dixon’s sprint effort had already run out, so slightly better powerup timing probably wouldn’t have helped here. Super strong effort from Henderson here – remember, all she had was a burrito, and it’s long gone!

15m: Tacey passes Dixon, then Henderson. Her aero powerup is still active.

5m: Tacey’s aero runs out – perfectly timed. Her momentum carries her further past Henderson and Dixon for the clear win.

0m: Stephens passes Dixon at 12 w/kg to take third at the line. Her aero powerup runs out perhaps 15m after crossing the line. Could she have activated her powerup a bit earlier, and gone a bit earlier, for a better result? Quite possibly. (In the video at 269m you can actually see Stephens’ avatar stand up to sprint, then sit down and activate her aero powerup, then stand up to sprint again. Perhaps she had to activate it herself, and couldn’t do it while sprinting. This may have cost her a placing!)

Finishing Order

1. Tacey (Drops, #62)
2. Henderson (Sunweb, #92)
3. Stephens (Tibco, #1)
4. Dixon (Tibco, yellow jersey, #2)
5. Dygert (Twenty20, #41)
6. Kasper (Parkhotel, #152)
7. Brennauer (WNT Rotor, #121)
8. Gigante (Tibco, #3)
9. Lippert (Sunweb, #93)
10. Lowden (Drops, polka-dot jersey, #64)
11. Bujak (Alé BTC Ljubljana, #143)

Tacey should be commended for her well-timed sprint. Henderson was super-powerful, getting second with no aero powerup. And Stephens came from behind to nab third, but may very well have gotten second with slightly better timing.

Three riders went into the sprint with no powerups: Gigante, Bujak, and Dygert. Dygert’s fifth place shows that she is more than just a TT champion – she can sprint!

What Might Have Been

By my calculations, if Tibco had worked together to stay away from the chasing group after the Petit KOM, they would now be in first place in the Team Overall General Classification, having garnered 9 more points (worst-case scenario) than they actually came away with in this stage. They would also have extended their lead over Drops for the General Time Classification, since Tacey wouldn’t have caught the front group and taken the win.

Why they didn’t do this is the confusing question. It appeared up the Petit KOM that they were working hard to beat up their opponents’ legs and split the pack, so it seems sensible to capitalize on that break once it happened.

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